2 p.m. - 3 p.m. Location: FN 2.102
Bielefield University, Germany
An introduction to Probability Models of Social Structure and Evolution
Stochastic modeling is used to estimate survival chances under uncertainty when factors responsible for the objective type of uncertainty (arising due to volatile environments) and for the subjective type of uncertainty (arising from subjective imperfections) may evolve on different time scales. The most favorable survival statistics of subsistence under uncertainty obeys the Zipf power law, however survival is always fleeting in precarious environments, in line with the observations of Leigh Van Valen on that all groups of species go extinct (in million years) at a rate that is constant for a given group. Similar probability models may be used in order to understand the temporal patterns of interaction in daily human communications, as well as in searching and hunting behavior. We also demonstrate that the risk averse behavior (concavity of the utility function) naturally leads to the Pareto-like distributions of income (inequality) over the society. We report on the world-wide economic growth- inequality relation (U-curve) observed by us in the historical trends (1870-2014) for the first time. The observed trend in state secession suggests that half of presently extant states might break up by the end of the century. Perhaps, we are on the edge of global uncertainty.
Sponsored by the Department of Mathematical Sciences